First Sandbox/Web3d Keynote reaction
Ben Medler has a decent summary of my keynote speech at Sandbox/Web 3d. I will see about getting the slides posted up, but honestly, I am holding out for video or audio because I suspect the slides won’t make much sense on their own — this was a highly verbal talk, with mostly static images and hardly any text on the slides.
Most attendees are probably still at SIGGRAPH proper, so more summaries might trickle out over time.
One question that came up at the cocktail party, and also in Ben’s summary is the issue of advancing technology. Isn’t it true that even the postage-stamp-sized screens are going to get more powerful? Yes, to a degree. But we shouldn’t forget that tech often gets powerful enough for a niche, then stops. Indeed, for many consumers, PCs are currently “powerful enough” and there isn’t a compelling reason to upgrade at the same rate as we have seen in the past. I don’t know where that line is for mobile devices, but I do know that the answer is typically less than techies want it to be.
There is also the question, I think, of Moore’s Wall, and whether people are empowered to use that tech in creative fashions.
Finally, there’s the question of whether powerful 3d tech on a postage-size screen actually looks and acts the same as the same tech on a large screen. I submit that the answer is no; there are affordances and restrictions provided by the cultural context in which the devices are used that must alter our design approaches, and there are plain old usability questions as well.
7 Responses to “First Sandbox/Web3d Keynote reaction”
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Personally, I just really don’t have any desire to game on a phone sized screen. Even hand held game systems, from the Gameboy to the PSP and DS, have only held my attention for so long. I’ve finally gone to console games because I love playing on my 102 inch screen. I’d hook my PC up to it if my wife would let me. But then she’d never get to use the TV to actually watch TV. 🙂
I cheated because I did record your talk so I had some time to go over it. I still have the audio file if you want it, I recorded it with an Olympus voice recorder and it’s an MP3 file.
Imagine, if you will, a small handheld device (iPhone-ish) that allows a pair of 3D glasses to be plugged in. (or, lightweight glasses that just display the image image in part of the person’s field-of-view). (Something less bulky than http://www.i-glassesstore.com/hmds.html)
Users effectively have a full-sized screen (assuming they don’t get motion sick, etc.) and will be able to use heaps of CPU. The iPhone physically turns into a gamepad.
Mike, I actually ended the speech on a story much like that. But that device is likely not as CPU-powerful as the desktop I have today, and given that the 3d is an overlay, it is also likely not the same sort of rendering we do today — it will be different in ways driven by its uses. Among other things, it likely wouldn’t be fully immersive rendering.
CPU as powerful as the desktop – It could, in the long run… if (a) the 3D needs to be immersive, and (b) the glasses display 60 fps at 180 degree FOV.
3D is an overlay – I’ve been thinking about that one. Will 3D be an overlay onto my existing vision, or will it occlude the real world: Where would I feel safe enough having 3D glasses occlude my entire FOV and hearing? A plane, yes. Probably not a bus; definitely not a schoolbus. Waiting for transportation in a public space? Probably not. At home, yes, but I think I’d just plug into a larger monitor (unless there were head tracking, 180 FOV, and no motion sickness).
Of course, if it’s just an overlay (out of safety concerns) then fully immersive rendering isn’t as important. And, as you imply, an overlay provides new gameplay avenues.
What was the reaction when you told people that the emperor has no clothes?
In just over a month I’m going to a text-to-speech conference where I’ll tell people that TTS in games is the future, and telephone IVR systems (a holy grail for TTS) is dying because of the iPhone. I’m going to use a historical lesson from Siggraph: My father attended circa 1980 and Siggraph was all about miltary flight simulators, CAD/CAM, flying logos in TV commericals, and previews of Tron. I haven’t paid much attention to siggraph since, but I suspect it’s largely about games and movies today. Military flight simulators, CAD/CAM. and flying logos barely get a mention.
Just thought I add… I think your dicussion about 3D graphics and tiny screens is acutally part of a larger issue:
Computers (specifically game-playing ones) no longer look like desktops anymore. There’s tremendous varation in CPU, memory, HD, screen, IO devices, and where/when the device is used. IO variation are where/when-used are particularly important.
Game designers have to take this into account; retail PC game designers have not. They continue to assume a 19″ monitor, speakers, mouse, and keyboard in a home-office or bedroom. Which is why I posted about a “bedtime game” on MUD-Dev. Some of the other situations are more obvious: Spending a few minutes at work to play a game = bejeweled or diner dash (casual?). Playing a game on or waiting for public transportation = iPhone game. Living room game with family = Wii. Etc.
“Military flight simulators, CAD/CAM. and flying logos barely get a mention”
Which means advances in the state of the art or solutions to ‘essential problems’ may come from those domains (perhaps not the flying logos but who knows). The tendancy is for emergence to start at the edges. It won’t be one but some combination of a small co-located or near-located group such as reuse of CAD/CAM/CAE/Architecture into a neighbor.
In short, overlay 3D (if I understand what that means in this context) was formerly augmented reality. There are markets for that emerging as we speak in security systems. This is one where the standards matter and the artistic evocations or game features are hind teat puppies.